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Some proponents of catastrophic global warming are finally admitting that the actual global temperature is not rising as fast as their models predict. In fact, data published recently by the British Met Office may actually indicate the beginning of a cooling trend. The official global temperatures published by the Met Office appear to be dropping out of the range predicted with 90% confidence by computer climate models.
Global surface temperatures have not risen in fifteen years.
Piers Forster, climate change professor at Leeds University, notes, “Global surface temperatures haven't risen in the past fifteen years. . . . [They] make the high estimates unlikely.” Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology agrees that “[climate] models are running too hot” and says the “current flat trend may continue for two more decades.”
Most of the scientists who believe the earth is heating up at catastrophic rates believe the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperature for the past half century. According to creation meteorologist Dr. Larry Vardiman, “They have not considered some of the long-term changes in solar activity as a possible explanation for this divergence from their predictions.”
For years, some creation scientists who specialize in climate have maintained that global warming is driven by cyclical solar effects that the Creator apparently put in place. Over the past five years, Dr. Vardiman has been predicting that the global temperature should have started declining sometime after 2000, based on complex statistical studies of the Central England Temperature (CET) records and solar activity.* Such data appear to confirm those predictions, although the downturn has taken longer than predicted to begin.
The British Met Office has now released strong evidence for this global cooling trend.
Based on observations of the solar effects that drive global temperature, Dr. Vardiman and others believe temperatures should continue to decline for several decades to come.
Unfortunately, Western governments have invested so much capital and reputation into the carbon dioxide theory that they are unlikely to give up on it anytime soon. This seems to be another sad case where people who reject the Bible’s revelation are chasing costly errors. If only they would recognize that we live on a young earth that has undergone radical climate changes as a result of the Flood, they would spend their efforts more wisely on understanding climate problems and solving them!
These climate variations should not surprise us or cause undue alarm. We know that God is holding the earth together until the day of His final judgment, and nothing can destroy it until He dissolves it Himself.