Will an Asteroid Hit the Earth in 2032?

What About This Asteroid?

Many people have asked me about the news reports of an asteroid possibly hitting the earth in seven years. This asteroid was discovered in late December by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). ATLAS uses four 0.5-meter robotic telescopes to search for near earth objects (NEOs), which include both asteroids and comets. NEOs are objects that orbit the sun close to the earth and hence could collide with us. Such a collision might have a devastating impact on civilization, so discovering NEOs with that potential would be desirable, though it’s not clear what effective response we might have to such a threat.

The asteroid in question received the designation 2024YR₄. This prosaic name reflects when it was discovered. 2024YR₄ was discovered on December 27, two days after it passed a little over half a million miles from the earth, slightly more than twice the moon’s distance from earth. Its orbital period is 3.991 years, and its distance from the sun varies between 0.8515 AU and 4.181 AU. The AU is the astronomical unit, defined as the average distance of the earth from the sun, about 93 million miles, or 150 million kilometers. As 2024YR₄ sped away from earth, measurements of its position allowed computation of 2024YR₄’s orbit. Soon 2024YR₄ was too far from earth and hence too faint to be observed, but there will be future opportunities to reobserve 2024YR₄ to refine our understanding of its orbit.

The preliminary orbit indicated that 2024YR₄ will pass within 110,000 miles of the earth on December 22, 2032. That is less than half the distance to the moon. However, the uncertainty in the distance of closest approach is greater than the earth-moon distance, so there is potential of a collision with earth. How likely is that possibility? Right now, it is calculated to be 2%. How large is 2024YR₄? That too is uncertain, but preliminary estimates place it in the range of 40–90 meters. Ninety meters is nearly the length of a football field. Given its size and a 2% probability of a collision with earth in late 2032, on January 29 this year, the International Asteroid Warning Network issued a warning.

The preliminary orbit indicated that 2024YR₄ will pass within 110,000 miles of the earth on December 22, 2032.

Why the uncertainty about 2024YR₄’s size and a possible collision? All measurements are subject to error. With repeated measurements, the effects of those errors diminish, especially in computing orbits. The recent measurements of 2024YR₄’s position spanned only 45 days. There will be opportunities in the future when 2024YR₄ is closer to earth than it is now to measure its position and hence refine its orbit calculation. This will be particularly true in December 2028 when 2024YR₄ will pass within five million miles of earth. That much larger baseline (four years versus 45 days) will allow a very precise orbit calculation, so in a few years, we’ll know with more certainty whether a collision will happen in 2032. As for 2024YR₄’s size, infrared observations are valuable in measuring that. Fortunately, over the next few months, 2024YR₄ will be within the grasp of the James Webb Space Telescope, which is an infrared telescope. Therefore, in a few months, we will have a better understanding of 2024YR₄’s size.

What Does This Mean to Believers?

What does this mean to Christians? Given that this possible collision could be catastrophic, and it is seven years away, some Christians will see apocalyptic significance. But this sort of thing is not new. For instance, five years ago, I wrote about a book discussing the possible collision of asteroid 99942 Apophis in 2029 and how that might fulfill biblical prophecy. While that asteroid initially posed a threat, later refinement of its orbit showed otherwise—it isn’t going to collide with earth in 2029, but its close pass that year could set up a collision in 2036. I expect that some books will quickly go to press about 2024YR₄ and what some people think it means prophetically. I suggest that you save your money and do not buy these books because later observations likely will reduce the threat of 2024YR₄ to zero.

There have been other supposedly apocalyptic things in the heavens. We can’t forget the excitement eight years ago about the supposed fulfillment of Revelation 12:1–2 in the sky on September 23, 2017. Obviously, that date passed without incident. Nor should we forget about the “blood moons” of 2014–2015 that spawned several books and a movie a dozen years ago. Those eclipses did not usher the return of Jesus to earth either. In 2017, I recalled similar prophetic fulfillment claims throughout my lifetime, and I concluded that I had survived the end of the world 10 times since reaching adulthood. Such wild speculation ultimately brings disrepute upon the cause of Christ.

The central point of our anticipation of the blessed hope of the Lord’s return is that we be ready (1 Thessalonians 4:13–5:11; Titus 2:11–14).

What is the proper biblical response to these apocalyptic claims of some Christians? By setting dates and working out timetables for the end times, we miss the central point. We know that Jesus will return, but with Jesus’ warning that no one knows the time of his return (Matthew 24:36), we ought to avoid speculations about the time of Jesus’ return. The central point of our anticipation of the blessed hope of the Lord’s return is that we be ready (1 Thessalonians 4:13–5:11; Titus 2:11–14). To be ready, how should we conduct ourselves? The Apostle Peter stated it well:

Since all these things are thus to be dissolved, what sort of people ought you to be in lives of holiness and godliness, waiting for and hastening the coming of the day of God, because of which the heavens will be set on fire and dissolved, and the heavenly bodies will melt as they burn! But according to his promise we are waiting for new heavens and a new earth in which righteousness dwells. Therefore, beloved, since you are waiting for these, be diligent to be found by him without spot or blemish, and at peace. 2 Peter 3:11–14

Are you living your life this way?